Coinbase Attack Costs $400M; OPEC+ Abandons Oil Price Boost Efforts
Key Takeaways
- Coinbase faces $400M loss after a security breach; hacker demands $20M ransom.
- OPEC+ has given up trying to boost oil prices, potentially impacting commodity markets.
- Russia's oil and gas revenue is projected to fall by a third in May.
- Rio Tinto invests $1.2B to modernize its Quebec power plant by 2032.
- Mercuria bets on tighter aluminum market, building a position over 1 million tons.
Top Stories
Coinbase attack: $400M loss, $20M ransom sought
On May 15, 2025, Coinbase disclosed an attack that is expected to cost $400 million, with bribed workers leaking data to a hacker seeking a $20 million ransom. While not directly related to commodity prices, this event is relevant to Bitcoin price trends.
OPEC+ gives up trying to boost oil prices
OPEC+ has given up trying to boost oil prices, according to a report published on May 15, 2025. This could have implications for commodity markets.
Russia's oil/gas revenue set to fall by a third
On May 15, 2025, Reuters reported that Russia’s oil and gas revenue is set to fall by a third in May.
Rio Tinto invests $1.2B in Quebec plant modernization
Rio Tinto Group plans to invest up to $1.2 billion by 2032 to modernize its 99-year-old power plant in Quebec, despite tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports, according to a report published on May 15, 2025. This could impact aluminum production and prices.
Mercuria bets on tighter aluminum market, Moscow sanctions
On May 15, 2025, Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. built a position of over 1 million tons of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange, betting that any easing of sanctions against Moscow would tighten the market.
Commodity Corner
China coal prices spiraling down due to glut
On May 15, 2025, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association reported that Chinese coal prices are in a downward spiral due to a glut of the fuel.
Citi: Base metals supported short-term by tariff relief
Citi reported on May 15, 2025, that base metals are expected to remain supported in the short term due to tariff relief delaying an economic slowdown.
Crude Oil Watch
Market watches Saudi output, Iran/Venezuela sanctions impact
As of May 15, 2025, the market is monitoring potential increases in oil production from Saudi Arabia and the impact of increased US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Iranian oil exports remained strong in April at 1.5-1.6 million barrels a day.
US shale forecast cut on lower prices, spending cuts
As of May 15, 2025, forecasts for U.S. shale production have been reduced for the second consecutive month due to lower prices, with US producers announcing cuts of up to nine to 10% in their CapEx spending. The shale forecast has been cut by about 200,000 barrels a day for 2026.
IEA: Global oil demand growth slowing, especially in China/India
On May 15, 2025, the IEA reported that global oil demand growth is slowing, particularly in China and India, and is expected to slow to 650,000 bpd for the remainder of 2025.
OPEC+ may increase production; oversupply possible in 2026
On May 15, 2025, the IEA reported that OPEC plans to increase production, potentially leading to an oversupplied market in 2026. Global oil supply is expected to rise faster than expected following an OPEC+ hike.
Kazakhstan, UAE, Iraq, Russia overproducing oil
As of May 15, 2025, Kazakhstan, the UAE, Iraq, and Russia are overproducing oil. This contributed to a roughly 14-15% fall in oil prices during April and May before a partial recovery.
US oil producers cutting spending due to lower prices
As of May 15, 2025, US independent oil producers are cutting spending and rigs in response to lower oil prices, which is expected to result in lesser growth in the United States.
Oil prices sank 4% on potential US-Iran deal
WTI Crude Oil watching 60.50 support
On May 15, 2025, it was reported that WTI Crude Oil is watching 60.50 support as momentum turns negative.
US oil/gas stocks trading below book value
On May 15, 2025, a third of all mid- and small-cap oil and gas stocks in the US are trading below their book values, the highest level since the pandemic, potentially creating opportunities for value investors.
Odd Lots: North American energy, peak oil, LNG future
On May 15, 2025, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway discussed with Peter Tertzakian the state of the North American energy industry, the prospects of peak onshore oil production in the United States, pipeline politics, and the future of liquified natural gas. Odd Lots published a podcast episode featuring Peter Tertzakian discussing the challenges facing oil companies, including sinking crude prices and rising tariffs.
Brazil oil workers plan strike over austerity
Brazil oil workers are planning a two-day strike to protest Petrobras' austerity measures, according to a report published on May 15, 2025. This could impact oil production and prices.
Gold Insights
Gold: US data supports rate cut hopes, hits 1-month low
On May 15, 2025, gold prices experienced conflicting signals. Positive US economic data fueled speculation about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while progress in US-China trade relations contributed to gold hitting a one-month low.
BofA: Gold price peak 'might be in'
On May 15, 2025, BofA's Blanch suggested that the peak in gold prices may have already occurred.